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Monday, April 23, 2007

Ségo v. Sarko

Not terribly surprising. It was definitely the safest bet, though of course "safe" is not a word one generally uses in connection with predicting French election outcomes.

The FT characterizes this as a return to the classic Left-Right confrontation, which is hard to disagree with. But my sense is that things are more concentrated around the Center, with Le Pen's poor showing and a paltry 1.9% for the PCF candidate.'s lead story is, perhaps predictably, a little weird. In particular, there is a strongly gendered dichotomy on offer here. First, this:
The choice is now between two starkly different visions for France -- the pro-American hardline ex-interior minister promising swift change or the first woman with an honest chance at becoming the country's leader, a candidate who is promising a gentler approach to reform.
So, the man is "hard" (or some derivation thereof) and the woman is "gentle"? Hm. Then, this:
Royal, a lawmaker and feminist who says she makes political decisions based on what she would do for her children
Feminism of a sort, I guess.

Anyway, should be an interesting two weeks. If I had to go out on a limb I'd guess Sarkozy takes it on May 6th, but I don't feel particularly confident about it.

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